Morning Brief

U.S. equities showed mixed signals as S&P and Nasdaq futures slipped amid semiconductor weakness and focus on the upcoming jobs report, while sentiment was buoyed by AI-driven fund inflows and record-high gold prices reflecting persistent geopolitical and inflationary concerns. The dollar faced pressure as India’s central bank scrapped capital gains tax on foreign bond investors to stabilize the rupee, and crude oil prices edged higher following an attack on Oman’s oil terminal and ongoing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent trading near $95/barrel. Commodity markets reflected a bifurcated picture: Brazil’s ethanol-powered grid launch and South America’s export surge contrasted with Malaysia’s declining crude output and Norway’s avoided offshore strike, underscoring regional energy volatility.

Globally, macro tensions centered on India’s robust 7.8% GDP growth amid currency stabilization measures, while China tightened oversight of its $3.4 trillion private fund sector and poached U.S. AI talent, deepening tech decoupling. Geopolitical fault lines widened as the U.S. Senate approved $70 billion for ICE and Border Patrol, Russia signaled openness to peace talks with Ukraine, and the EU pressed Beijing on overcapacity while seeking dialogue. The SpaceX IPO’s exclusion from the S&P 500 and its $135/share pricing ignited debate over private market valuations, while central bank gold buying held at 45-year highs, signaling enduring institutional risk aversion despite AI optimism.

UPS — UPS is indirectly affected by the internal turmoil at CBS News following Scott Pelley’s firing, which reflects broader instability in media operations that could influence advertising and logistics partnerships; while not a direct operational impact, the incident underscores heightened scrutiny of corporate governance in media-adjacent sectors that UPS serves through its delivery and supply chain networks.

SpaceX’s IPO is set to become the largest in history at a $135 share price, valuing the company at over $1 trillion and surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 offering, but its exclusion from the S&P 500 after S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to loosen index eligibility rules has ignited intense debate over the disconnect between private market valuations and public market standards, raising questions about index integrity and investor access in the era of mega-private tech firms.